Summary：

China's painting industry saw stable Q1 2025 growth: output +0.14%, profit +26.5%, exports surged 30.35%. Europe’s sales fell 0.5% but value rose 0.4%; U.S. tariffs hit imports. Leading firms like AkzoNobel and Jotun showed mixed results. PPG innovated with smart paints; raw material costs and terminal prices fluctuated.

I. Import-Export Dynamics

(A) China Market Performance

Data from the China National Painting Industry Association shows that the painting industry's total output reached 7.576 million tons in Q1 2025, a slight 0.14% year-on-year increase; main business revenue was ¥88.59 billion (+4.2% YoY), and total profit reached ¥5.17 billion (+26.5% YoY). In exports, paintings saw a sharp 30.35% YoY increase in cumulative exports (89,400 tons) and a 25.10% rise in export value ($279 million) in Q1. Titanium dioxide exports rose 2.21% YoY to 499,900 tons but fell 6.22% in value to $1.019 billion; iron oxide pigments exports dropped 11.42% YoY to 74,100 tons, with a 17.25% decline in value to $69 million.

(B) Global Market Trends

Europe’s painting sales are projected to decline 0.5% in Q1 2025 due to weak construction and manufacturing sectors, though sales value grew 0.4%. Decorative painting sales fell 1%, with flat sales value. As the world’s largest painting importer, the U.S. tariff policies have significantly impacted supply chains—companies like Benjamin Moore suspended Chinese imports due to surging costs.

II. Sales and Market Trends

(A) Leading Enterprise Performance

• AkzoNobel: Q1 2025 sales reached €2.613 billion (-1% YoY), but adjusted EBITDA stood at €357 million (13.7% margin), flat with last year. The company offset market weakness and inflation via price hikes and cost cuts, particularly relying on localized production in North America to withstand tariffs.
• BASF: Q1 sales were €17.402 billion (-0.9% YoY), with EBITDA excluding special items at €2.625 billion (-3.2% YoY). Despite global economic weakness, its regional resilience maintained market position, with 80% of U.S. sales from local production.
• Jotun: Q1 sales reached 8.571 billion Norwegian kroner (≈¥5.765 billion), up 6.4% YoY. China’s marine paintings became the core growth driver due to a new shipbuilding boom, with operating profit up 3.9% YoY.

(B) Market Innovation and Consumer Trends

• Eco-Friendly and Color Trends: PPG’s "Misty Gray-Green" series, integrating ecological restoration concepts, became a bestseller in North America; Skshu’s "Celadon White" combines Song Dynasty aesthetics with anti-stain technology, exceeding penetration expectations in Yangtze River Delta new communities.
• Smart Painting Development: PPG partnered with MIT to develop "climate-responsive color" photosensitive paintings that dynamically change color with temperature and humidity, signaling future technological directions.

III. Price Trends

(A) Raw Material Cost Volatility

Brent crude oil experienced sharp volatility in April 2025, plunging to $60/barrel before rebounding to $67/barrel, driven by OPEC+ production hikes and geopolitical tensions. Petrochemical byproducts like resins fluctuated accordingly—Wacker Chemie announced a price increase of up to 5% for emulsions and redispersible polymer powders in Europe and the U.S. from May 1.

(B) Terminal Product Price Adjustments

Henkel raised prices for general industrial manufacturing and maintenance paintings from May 1 due to raw material and logistics costs. Wind power paintings rose 5.93% QoQ in Q1, and container paintings rebounded 9.77% YoY, though some dark-colored eco-paintings still face fading issues.

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